September 2025

  • The Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts. As expected, the central bank lowered the benchmark rate by 0.25% in this month’s meeting, and the updated dot plot points to two additional rate cuts by year-end. Inflation remains sticky, but the Fed’s bigger worry is the labor market, which has clearly weakened and now demands attention. Read More


August 2025

Every August, we “Chart the Course” with a series of charts that highlight key current and historical trends in the economy and markets. We hope you find them both insightful and useful. Our regular commentary will resume in September. Read More


July 2025

  • The newly signed tax bill passed by Congress and the President the first week of July delivers front-loaded stimulus aimed at boosting near-term growth while cushioning tariff impacts. Despite longer-term deficit concerns, it’s a net positive for the economy in the short run. Read More

June 2025

Geopolitical tensions flared last week as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, sparking a swift market response—stocks dipped and oil surged. While the headlines are serious, historical context and energy dynamics suggest a short-term shock, not a lasting shift. Read More


May 2025

  • The temporary U.S.–China tariff suspension is a clear step forward, lowering effective tariff rates to more manageable levels. But uncertainty remains, especially for small businesses and the direction of future negotiations. Sentiment-based “soft” data continues to fall sharply, while hard economic indicators remain resilient. Read More

April 2025

The tariffs took effect on April 9. But the very same day, the President paused tariffs on all non-retaliating countries, except China. The pause will allow more time for negotiations, but additional clarity on the end goal and policy implementation will be needed for investors and companies to regain confidence. Read More


March 2025

Investors anticipated tax cuts and deregulation after the election but overlooked the full impact of tariffs, which are now unsettling business planning and sentiment. While uncertainty can slow economic growth, history shows that geopolitical events rarely cause recessions—thus the risk of a major bear market is low. Read More


February 2025

Trade tensions have escalated significantly with new US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, China, and potentially, the EU. While the longer-term impact is uncertain, the administration’s goals appear to be increasing tariff revenue and reducing the trade deficit. Despite some concerns from companies, the broader economic effect will likely be limited if US economic growth remains strong. Read More


January 2025

The U.S. economy led global growth in 2024, fueled by a strong labor market, easing inflation, and resilient consumer finances. These key factors underscore continued growth and support an optimistic economic outlook for the year ahead. Read More


December 2024

Consumer balance sheets remain healthy, with manageable debt levels and ample room for further spending to support economic growth. Coupled with a relatively young economic cycle, this suggests continued room for expansion in 2025. Read More


November 2024

The Fed cut rates again as it seeks to deliver a “soft landing”, balancing inflation and economic growth. Historically, easing monetary policy amid market highs has been a bullish signal, with stocks averaging 15% gains in past instances. Looking ahead, the Fed projects a median Fed funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025, suggesting a gradual pace of rate reductions over the next year. Read More


October 2024

In Q3, most asset classes, including stocks and bonds, saw strong gains, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and diminishing recession risks. Notable trends included a rebound in small-cap stocks, a boost for international markets due to a weaker dollar, and the best quarter for bonds this year. Meanwhile, commodities lagged due to declining oil prices. Read More


Archives

  • 2023

    December 2023

    As we approach 2024, the positive alignment of both macrocast™ and microcast™ is significant, indicating improving conditions for risk assets. However, we must acknowledge that although the macrocast™ score is positive, it is still relatively low. While we have not seen a positive score immediately fall back below zero, a market correction could push the score back into negative territory. Read More


    November 2023

    Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest the US central bank may be at the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle that began in early 2022. Still, higher rates and the continuation of Quantitative Tightening reflect the Fed’s commitment to tighter-for- longer monetary policy as they aim to curb inflation without inducing an economic recession.   Read More


    October 2023

    Although the S&P 500 has posted strong year-to-date returns, major asset classes have largely stagnated over the past two years. Since the beginning of 2022, major equity and bond indices have declined between 4% to 20%. However, over the long term, both stocks and bonds have historically exhibited positive real returns, and we expect that will continue to be the case going forward.  Read More


    September 2023

    In August, headline inflation—influenced by rising gas prices—accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year growth, up from 3.2% in the prior month. On the positive side, core inflation continued to slow, dropping to a rate of 4.3% year-over-year. While the trend in core inflation is encouraging, there is still work to be done in achieving the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and another rate hike is still possible before year end.  Read More


    August 2023

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating key trends in the economy and markets. We hope you enjoy these, and we will resume publication of our regular commentary in September.  Read More


    July 2023

    Leading indicators continue to signal potential economic softness on the horizon, while the robustness of coincident indicators paints a picture of a healthy economy. We predict that this divergence will likely sort itself out by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024, resulting either in a downturn or a positive inflection in the business cycle.  Read More


    June 2023

    The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is set to finish the first half of the year with double-digit gains. This is in stark contrast with leading economic indicators, which suggest a recession is still a high probability.  Read More


    May 2023

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate by 0.25% earlier this month, marking what could be the end of this cycle’s rate hikes. Should this prove to be the case, it would be the quickest rate-hike cycle in the past four decades.  Read More


    April 2023

    Major asset classes enjoyed a strong start to the year, a reversal of the way 2022 began. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly positive returns. Bonds also performed well, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index posting its best return since Spring 2020.  Read More


    March 2023

    The banks that have failed over the past week were among the riskiest financial institutions, given their outsized exposure to clientele in the tech industry. Still, the collapse of these banks highlights the consequences of the Fed’s rapid shift in monetary policy. Following a multi-year period of zero interest rate policy, the Fed has increased interest rates at a historic pace bring down inflation. The speed of this tightening and the sharp draining of liquidity creates stress on the financial system.  Read More


    February 2023

    So far, in 2023, the contradicting signals of macrocast™ and microcast™ is the defining market theme—in essence, it is a clash between a recession and a soft landing. A tight labor market and improving market returns are key factors supporting the soft landing narrative, but it’s important to remember that hope for a soft landing always precedes a recession.  Read More


    January 2023

    Markets faced several headwinds in 2022, including high inflation, historic tightening by central banks, and the Ukrainian war. Inflation was a driving factor in the markets throughout the year, with the headline consumer price index reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.  Read More

  • 2022

    December 2022

    Most leading economic indicators are at levels consistent with past recessions, signaling a recession is likely sometime in 2023. In each recession since 1957, S&P 500 earnings have contracted. With analysts projecting mid-single-digit earnings growth next year, we do not believe a recession is adequately “priced in” to stock prices.  Read More


    November 2022

    Last week’s lower than expected inflation data was a welcome change after several months of disappointing figures. Slowing inflation is a significant factor in the Fed’s policy framework, but inflation remains high and there are no signs the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates before next spring. Read More


    October 2022

    Inflation—and the Fed’s fight against it—remains the driving force behind market action. While inflation has likely peaked, the Fed is focused on reducing wage growth to slow inflation further, and history shows higher unemployment may be needed to achieve that goal. Read More


    September 2022

    In recent speeches, members of the Federal Reserve have reiterated that they want to see inflation come down and stay down before they are ready to slow rate hikes. With the latest inflation figures coming in higher than expected, that view is likely to remain in place for at least the next few months.  Read More


    August 2022

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts that illustrate key trends in the economy and markets. The data depicted in these charts is consistent with what we see in macrocast™. Read More


    July 2022

    Most major asset classes saw negative returns in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe were down double digits, and bonds continued their sell off from the first quarter.  Read More


    June 2022

    In a follow-up to our most recent podcast, we highlight every major bear market since the Great Depression. Historically, once a bear market ended, returns over the following 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods were all positive, and often, well above average.  Read More


    May 2022

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by 50 bps (.50%). This was the largest single rate hike since 2000. Looking ahead, they signaled for another 50 bp increase in June and July, and Chairman Powell said further rate hikes, starting in September, would depend on the path of economic growth and inflation.  Read More


    April 2022

    Most asset classes performed poorly in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly negative returns, except for those with significant commodity exposure. In a repeat of the first quarter of 2021, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index suffered another major negative quarter.  Read More


    March 2022

    The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. It was the first of what is expected to be several rate hikes in 2022, as the central bank looks to tamp down inflation while maintaining the strong job market. Chairman Jerome Powell has shifted to a more aggressive tone and is signaling the Fed will no longer wait for inflation to improve on its own.  Read More


    February 2022

    Three issues that have been a hindrance to the market should start improving over the next few months. Inflation concerns, uncertainty about the aggressiveness of Fed tightening, and geopolitical tensions should all be nearing peak levels. Read More


    January 2022

    The market has started the year with a correction, the first since 2020. An increase in volatility was expected coming into the year, given the large gains and lower volatility last year.  When viewed from a historical lens, the recent pullback is unsurprising, but typically, sustained bear market declines are uncommon absent an economic recession. Read More

  • 2021

    December 2021

    Heading into the new year, macrocast™ indicates a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Our current microcast™ signal is suggesting an aggressive allocation. Both models are decisively positive, underpinning a positive market outlook going into 2022. Read More


    October 2021

    Asset class performance diverged a bit in Q3, with few stock indices performing well. US large-cap stocks led the way, while mid- and small-caps posted negative returns. Emerging markets performed poorly, bonds were mostly unchanged, and commodities surged higher. Read More


    September 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs, yet unemployment remains elevated. This conundrum is due to pandemic dislocations and government policy. We believe that these factors have either resolved or will do so in the coming months, leading to continued job growth. Read More


    August 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs. While the labor market continues to recover, it remains below peak employment levels seen in February 2020. There are several reasons for this, but a lack of available jobs is not one of them, with over 10 million openings reported in the latest survey. This bodes well for continued job growth as we move beyond the pandemic and its effects. Read More


    July 2021

    Most asset classes continued to perform well in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe and across market caps again saw positive returns and the majority are up double digits year to date. Bonds also rebounded in Q2. Read More


    June 2021

    Economic growth should remain robust for the rest of 2021, albeit at a slower pace. Constraints in both the housing market and auto industry may negatively impact GDP, but these issues should prove temporary and lead to a rebound in 2022, helping extend the recovery. Read More


    May 2021

    While higher inflation was anticipated, the latest print came in even higher than expected. However, digging deeper into the numbers suggests unique conditions accounted for most of the increase. Read More


    April 2021

    The majority of asset classes performed well in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw positive returns. The notable laggard was bonds. The Barclays Aggregate Bond index suffered its worst quarter since 1981. Read More


    March 2021

    Inflation worries have been in the news lately, with some economists suggesting that the fiscal rescue package, mass vaccinations, and supply constraints will lead to a significant rise in prices. We share the Federal Reserve’s view that any spike in inflation will be temporary. Read More


    February 2021

    The latest economic data continues to exceed expectations. The most recent numbers on auto sales, building permits, and retail sales remain robust as the economic recovery progresses. Read More


    January 2021

    At the end of the first quarter last year, there were bear markets across the globe. By the end of 2020, nearly all equity markets had rebounded, finishing positive on the year. It was a remarkable turnaround, and the S&P 500 saw one of the strongest rallies of all time after the fastest drop in history. Read More

September 2025

In this issue: Boomer Homeownership and Retirement; Three Ways to Help Build Financial Resilience; FAFSA for 2026-2027 School Year Opens on October 1; Planning for a Pricey Pet; How Has SECURE 2.0 Affected 401(k) Plans?; Unpacking the Real Limits on Unlimited PTO Read More

August 2025

In this issue: Cost Is a Key Factor in College Selection; Home Appliance Economics; Staycations Are About More Than Savings Money; Navigating Financial Conversations with Aging Parents; Consider Munis for Tax-Free Income; and Avoiding Probate with a TOD Deed and TOD Account Read More

July 2025

In this issue: Travel Spending Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels; The Lock-in Effect Is Easing, But Oh So Slowly; Have You Set a Retirement Savings Goal?; Buying a Condo? Focus on the Financials; Family Fun for Less: Tips to Help Cut Costs on Your Next Vacation; and Tips to Help Preserve Your Inheritance Read More

June 2025

In this issue: State and Local Sales Tax Across the Map; Social Security Wage Base for 2025 Is Highest Yet; Will You Pay a Medicare Surcharge?; Peer-to-Peer Payments Are Popular, but be Careful; Golf is Back but Good Luck Getting a. Tee Time; and Fine-Tuning with Sector Funds Read More

May 2025

In this issue: Prime Workforce Stays Strong; QLACs: Your Retirement Accounts Can Act Like Pensions; Are Extended Warranties Worth It? Life Insurance In Retirement; Versatile 529 Plans Can Help with More than Just College; and A BAckup Plan for Your Paycheck Read More

April 2025

In this issue: Cost of Livin Varies Widely Across the U.S.; Funding the Federal Government; Have You Checked Your Social Security Statement Lately?; Catch Up for a More Comfortable Retirement; ETFs Are Closing the Gap with Mutual Funds; and Debt After Death: What Happens to Debt When Someone Dies? Read More

March 2025

In this issue: Tax Time: Procrastination Is Common and Can Be Costly; Say Hello Again. to a So-So Job Market; The Versatile Roth IRA; Are You Missing the Bull’s-Eye with a Target-Date Fund?; Breaking Down the Numbers: The Soaring U.S. National Debt; Return of Premium Term Life Insurance: Is It Right for You? Read More

February 2025

In this issue: Enjoying Retirement Despite the Costs; Steady Growth in Real Wages; Key Retirement and Tax Numbers for 2025; Accounts for Two: A Team Approach to Retirement Savings; Protecting Your Packages: Tips to Combat Porch Pirates; Get Ready for Tax Time Read More

January 2025

In this issue: Do You Have a New Year’s Resolution?; Social Security COLA Lower for 2025; Three Market-Moving Economic Indicators to Watch; Financial Safety Nets: Exploring Available Sources of Emergency Funds; What’s New for 2025?; and The Four-Day Workweek: Is It Destiny or a Distant Dream? Read More

December 2024

In this issue: Will Holiday Spending Outpace Inflation; Where Americans Are Stashing Their Cash; Would You Be Prepared for an Unplanned Early Retirement?; Home Energy Rebates Could Save You Money; ABLE Turns 10; and Three Ways to Invest in Yourself Read More

November 2024

In this issue: Child Care Costs More Than Housing; Year-End 2024 Tax Tips; Charitable Gifts of Life Insurance; A Critical Combo: Life Insurance with Long-Term Care Benefits; Eight Ideas for Smarter Holiday Shopping; and Playing Fair: New Consumer Protections for Airline Passengers Read More

October 2024

In this issue: Sources of Retirement Income; Vanishing Family Farms; Don’t Have a will?; Medicare Coverage Options; Self-employed Tax-Friendly Retirement Plans; FAFSA for 2025-2026 School Year Read More

September 29, 2025

As of Market Close on September 26, 2025
Despite a rebound on Friday, stocks closed last week mostly lower. Each of the major market indexes, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ, declined in value following a record-setting rally that lasted several weeks. Investors pondered the impact of new tariffs on certain imports announced by President Trump as well as mixed signals from the Federal Reserve as inflation remained somewhat elevated, although within expectations. Read More

September 22, 2025

As of Market Close on September 19, 2025
The stock market continued its record-setting run last week with the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ each reaching new record highs. The small caps of the Russell 2000 also hit a new high for the first time in four years, which signaled a broadening of the rally beyond tech stocks. The major impetus for last week’s market performance was the Federal Reserve’s decision to trim interest rates (see below) for the first time this year.
Read More

September 15, 2025

As of Market Close on September 12, 2025
Wall Street enjoyed a positive performance last week, fueled by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here finished the week with gains. The NASDAQ recorded a fresh record high as tech shares continued to lead the market. Investors apparently saw the economy slowing just enough to warrant an interest rate cut but not so much as to trigger a recession.
Read More

September 8, 2025

As of Market Close on September 5, 2025
The stock market was heavily influenced last week by new data on the labor market, which continued to show signs of cooling and bolstered expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. Throughout last week, Wall Street experienced some significant swings driven by economic data. The week began with a downturn but ended on a positive note, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hitting new record highs on Friday.
Read More

September 2, 2025

As of Market Close on August 25, 2025
Wall Street experienced a mixed and volatile week, ultimately closing last Friday on a down note. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here pulled back from recent record highs. A slump in technology stocks was the primary drag on the market. The latest inflation data (see below), which showed core prices continued to rise, weighed on market sentiment, although it probably wasn’t enough to derail expectations for a September interest rate cut.
Read More

August 25, 2025

As of Market Close on August 22, 2025
Last week was a volatile one for stocks, largely in response to mixed economic data, corporate earnings reports, and the anticipation of a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the end of the week. The benchmark indexes listed here ebbed and flowed for much of the week until last Friday, when equities surged after Powell hinted at a likely interest rate cut in September. The S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and the Global Dow each posted weekly gains, with the Dow reaching a record high last Friday.
Read More

August 18, 2025

As of Market Close on August 15, 2025
Stocks enjoyed another winning week, despite a pullback last Friday. Overall, investor sentiment remained optimistic due to continued expectations of an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve next month. The latest data (see below) revealed that inflationary pressures showed signs of moving higher. Retail sales advanced in July, as expected, as summer spending remained solid, although sales in some sectors exposed to higher tariffs declined.
Read More

August 11, 2025

As of Market Close August 8, 2025
Wall Street rebounded from the previous week’s sell-off. Stocks jumped higher last Monday, aided by major dip-buying. However, investors pulled away from risk midweek, particularly following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which took effect last Thursday. Read More

August 4, 2025

As of Market Close on August 1, 2025
The U.S. stock market endured a significant downturn last week, largely due to unexpectedly weak hiring data (see below) and the imposition of new tariffs by President Trump. After reaching record highs for six straight sessions in the prior week, the S&P 500 ended last week in the red, with last Friday marking the worst single-day performance since May. Read More

July 28, 2025

As of Market Close on July 25, 2025
The stock market last week had a mixed performance across major indexes, largely influenced by corporate earnings reports and ongoing discussions around trade tariffs. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reached new record highs last week, driven by strong performances from several big tech companies, which reported better-than-expected profits. In fact, last Friday’s gains marked the fifth straight record close for the S&P 500. Read More

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