Newsletters

May 2025

  • The temporary U.S.–China tariff suspension is a clear step forward, lowering effective tariff rates to more manageable levels. But uncertainty remains, especially for small businesses and the direction of future negotiations. Sentiment-based “soft” data continues to fall sharply, while hard economic indicators remain resilient. Read More

April 2025

The tariffs took effect on April 9. But the very same day, the President paused tariffs on all non-retaliating countries, except China. The pause will allow more time for negotiations, but additional clarity on the end goal and policy implementation will be needed for investors and companies to regain confidence. Read More

March 2025

Investors anticipated tax cuts and deregulation after the election but overlooked the full impact of tariffs, which are now unsettling business planning and sentiment. While uncertainty can slow economic growth, history shows that geopolitical events rarely cause recessions—thus the risk of a major bear market is low. Read More

February 2025

Trade tensions have escalated significantly with new US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, China, and potentially, the EU. While the longer-term impact is uncertain, the administration’s goals appear to be increasing tariff revenue and reducing the trade deficit. Despite some concerns from companies, the broader economic effect will likely be limited if US economic growth remains strong. Read More

January 2025

The U.S. economy led global growth in 2024, fueled by a strong labor market, easing inflation, and resilient consumer finances. These key factors underscore continued growth and support an optimistic economic outlook for the year ahead. Read More

December 2024

Consumer balance sheets remain healthy, with manageable debt levels and ample room for further spending to support economic growth. Coupled with a relatively young economic cycle, this suggests continued room for expansion in 2025. Read More

November 2024

The Fed cut rates again as it seeks to deliver a “soft landing”, balancing inflation and economic growth. Historically, easing monetary policy amid market highs has been a bullish signal, with stocks averaging 15% gains in past instances. Looking ahead, the Fed projects a median Fed funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025, suggesting a gradual pace of rate reductions over the next year. Read More

October 2024

In Q3, most asset classes, including stocks and bonds, saw strong gains, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and diminishing recession risks. Notable trends included a rebound in small-cap stocks, a boost for international markets due to a weaker dollar, and the best quarter for bonds this year. Meanwhile, commodities lagged due to declining oil prices. Read More

September 2024

The Federal Reserve is set to begin a rate cutting cycle on September 18th. An initial 0.25%-0.50% cut is expected, the first of several over the next year as their attention moves from inflation to a slowdown in employment growth.  Read More

August 2024

Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating the important trends in the economy and markets. We will resume publication of our regular commentary in September. Read More

July 2024

Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.  Read More

June 2024

Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.  Read More

Archives

  • 2023

    December 2023

    As we approach 2024, the positive alignment of both macrocast™ and microcast™ is significant, indicating improving conditions for risk assets. However, we must acknowledge that although the macrocast™ score is positive, it is still relatively low. While we have not seen a positive score immediately fall back below zero, a market correction could push the score back into negative territory. Read More

    November 2023

    Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest the US central bank may be at the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle that began in early 2022. Still, higher rates and the continuation of Quantitative Tightening reflect the Fed’s commitment to tighter-for- longer monetary policy as they aim to curb inflation without inducing an economic recession.   Read More

    October 2023

    Although the S&P 500 has posted strong year-to-date returns, major asset classes have largely stagnated over the past two years. Since the beginning of 2022, major equity and bond indices have declined between 4% to 20%. However, over the long term, both stocks and bonds have historically exhibited positive real returns, and we expect that will continue to be the case going forward.  Read More

    September 2023

    In August, headline inflation—influenced by rising gas prices—accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year growth, up from 3.2% in the prior month. On the positive side, core inflation continued to slow, dropping to a rate of 4.3% year-over-year. While the trend in core inflation is encouraging, there is still work to be done in achieving the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and another rate hike is still possible before year end.  Read More

    August 2023

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating key trends in the economy and markets. We hope you enjoy these, and we will resume publication of our regular commentary in September.  Read More

    July 2023

    Leading indicators continue to signal potential economic softness on the horizon, while the robustness of coincident indicators paints a picture of a healthy economy. We predict that this divergence will likely sort itself out by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024, resulting either in a downturn or a positive inflection in the business cycle.  Read More

    June 2023

    The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is set to finish the first half of the year with double-digit gains. This is in stark contrast with leading economic indicators, which suggest a recession is still a high probability.  Read More

    May 2023

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate by 0.25% earlier this month, marking what could be the end of this cycle’s rate hikes. Should this prove to be the case, it would be the quickest rate-hike cycle in the past four decades.  Read More

    April 2023

    Major asset classes enjoyed a strong start to the year, a reversal of the way 2022 began. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly positive returns. Bonds also performed well, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index posting its best return since Spring 2020.  Read More

    March 2023

    The banks that have failed over the past week were among the riskiest financial institutions, given their outsized exposure to clientele in the tech industry. Still, the collapse of these banks highlights the consequences of the Fed’s rapid shift in monetary policy. Following a multi-year period of zero interest rate policy, the Fed has increased interest rates at a historic pace bring down inflation. The speed of this tightening and the sharp draining of liquidity creates stress on the financial system.  Read More

    February 2023

    So far, in 2023, the contradicting signals of macrocast™ and microcast™ is the defining market theme—in essence, it is a clash between a recession and a soft landing. A tight labor market and improving market returns are key factors supporting the soft landing narrative, but it’s important to remember that hope for a soft landing always precedes a recession.  Read More

    January 2023

    Markets faced several headwinds in 2022, including high inflation, historic tightening by central banks, and the Ukrainian war. Inflation was a driving factor in the markets throughout the year, with the headline consumer price index reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.  Read More

  • 2022

    December 2022

    Most leading economic indicators are at levels consistent with past recessions, signaling a recession is likely sometime in 2023. In each recession since 1957, S&P 500 earnings have contracted. With analysts projecting mid-single-digit earnings growth next year, we do not believe a recession is adequately “priced in” to stock prices.  Read More

    November 2022

    Last week’s lower than expected inflation data was a welcome change after several months of disappointing figures. Slowing inflation is a significant factor in the Fed’s policy framework, but inflation remains high and there are no signs the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates before next spring. Read More

    October 2022

    Inflation—and the Fed’s fight against it—remains the driving force behind market action. While inflation has likely peaked, the Fed is focused on reducing wage growth to slow inflation further, and history shows higher unemployment may be needed to achieve that goal. Read More

    September 2022

    In recent speeches, members of the Federal Reserve have reiterated that they want to see inflation come down and stay down before they are ready to slow rate hikes. With the latest inflation figures coming in higher than expected, that view is likely to remain in place for at least the next few months.  Read More

    August 2022

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts that illustrate key trends in the economy and markets. The data depicted in these charts is consistent with what we see in macrocast™. Read More

    July 2022

    Most major asset classes saw negative returns in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe were down double digits, and bonds continued their sell off from the first quarter.  Read More

    June 2022

    In a follow-up to our most recent podcast, we highlight every major bear market since the Great Depression. Historically, once a bear market ended, returns over the following 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods were all positive, and often, well above average.  Read More

    May 2022

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by 50 bps (.50%). This was the largest single rate hike since 2000. Looking ahead, they signaled for another 50 bp increase in June and July, and Chairman Powell said further rate hikes, starting in September, would depend on the path of economic growth and inflation.  Read More

    April 2022

    Most asset classes performed poorly in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly negative returns, except for those with significant commodity exposure. In a repeat of the first quarter of 2021, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index suffered another major negative quarter.  Read More

    March 2022

    The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. It was the first of what is expected to be several rate hikes in 2022, as the central bank looks to tamp down inflation while maintaining the strong job market. Chairman Jerome Powell has shifted to a more aggressive tone and is signaling the Fed will no longer wait for inflation to improve on its own.  Read More

    February 2022

    Three issues that have been a hindrance to the market should start improving over the next few months. Inflation concerns, uncertainty about the aggressiveness of Fed tightening, and geopolitical tensions should all be nearing peak levels. Read More

    January 2022

    The market has started the year with a correction, the first since 2020. An increase in volatility was expected coming into the year, given the large gains and lower volatility last year.  When viewed from a historical lens, the recent pullback is unsurprising, but typically, sustained bear market declines are uncommon absent an economic recession. Read More

  • 2021

    December 2021

    Heading into the new year, macrocast™ indicates a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Our current microcast™ signal is suggesting an aggressive allocation. Both models are decisively positive, underpinning a positive market outlook going into 2022. Read More

    October 2021

    Asset class performance diverged a bit in Q3, with few stock indices performing well. US large-cap stocks led the way, while mid- and small-caps posted negative returns. Emerging markets performed poorly, bonds were mostly unchanged, and commodities surged higher. Read More

    September 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs, yet unemployment remains elevated. This conundrum is due to pandemic dislocations and government policy. We believe that these factors have either resolved or will do so in the coming months, leading to continued job growth. Read More

    August 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs. While the labor market continues to recover, it remains below peak employment levels seen in February 2020. There are several reasons for this, but a lack of available jobs is not one of them, with over 10 million openings reported in the latest survey. This bodes well for continued job growth as we move beyond the pandemic and its effects. Read More

    July 2021

    Most asset classes continued to perform well in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe and across market caps again saw positive returns and the majority are up double digits year to date. Bonds also rebounded in Q2. Read More

    June 2021

    Economic growth should remain robust for the rest of 2021, albeit at a slower pace. Constraints in both the housing market and auto industry may negatively impact GDP, but these issues should prove temporary and lead to a rebound in 2022, helping extend the recovery. Read More

    May 2021

    While higher inflation was anticipated, the latest print came in even higher than expected. However, digging deeper into the numbers suggests unique conditions accounted for most of the increase. Read More

    April 2021

    The majority of asset classes performed well in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw positive returns. The notable laggard was bonds. The Barclays Aggregate Bond index suffered its worst quarter since 1981. Read More

    March 2021

    Inflation worries have been in the news lately, with some economists suggesting that the fiscal rescue package, mass vaccinations, and supply constraints will lead to a significant rise in prices. We share the Federal Reserve’s view that any spike in inflation will be temporary. Read More

    February 2021

    The latest economic data continues to exceed expectations. The most recent numbers on auto sales, building permits, and retail sales remain robust as the economic recovery progresses. Read More

    January 2021

    At the end of the first quarter last year, there were bear markets across the globe. By the end of 2020, nearly all equity markets had rebounded, finishing positive on the year. It was a remarkable turnaround, and the S&P 500 saw one of the strongest rallies of all time after the fastest drop in history. Read More

May 2025

In this issue: Prime Workforce Stays Strong; QLACs: Your Retirement Accounts Can Act Like Pensions; Are Extended Warranties Worth It? Life Insurance In Retirement; Versatile 529 Plans Can Help with More than Just College; and A BAckup Plan for Your Paycheck Read More

April 2025

In this issue: Cost of Livin Varies Widely Across the U.S.; Funding the Federal Government; Have You Checked Your Social Security Statement Lately?; Catch Up for a More Comfortable Retirement; ETFs Are Closing the Gap with Mutual Funds; and Debt After Death: What Happens to Debt When Someone Dies? Read More

March 2025

In this issue: Tax Time: Procrastination Is Common and Can Be Costly; Say Hello Again. to a So-So Job Market; The Versatile Roth IRA; Are You Missing the Bull’s-Eye with a Target-Date Fund?; Breaking Down the Numbers: The Soaring U.S. National Debt; Return of Premium Term Life Insurance: Is It Right for You? Read More

February 2025

In this issue: Enjoying Retirement Despite the Costs; Steady Growth in Real Wages; Key Retirement and Tax Numbers for 2025; Accounts for Two: A Team Approach to Retirement Savings; Protecting Your Packages: Tips to Combat Porch Pirates; Get Ready for Tax Time Read More

January 2025

In this issue: Do You Have a New Year’s Resolution?; Social Security COLA Lower for 2025; Three Market-Moving Economic Indicators to Watch; Financial Safety Nets: Exploring Available Sources of Emergency Funds; What’s New for 2025?; and The Four-Day Workweek: Is It Destiny or a Distant Dream? Read More

December 2024

In this issue: Will Holiday Spending Outpace Inflation; Where Americans Are Stashing Their Cash; Would You Be Prepared for an Unplanned Early Retirement?; Home Energy Rebates Could Save You Money; ABLE Turns 10; and Three Ways to Invest in Yourself Read More

November 2024

In this issue: Child Care Costs More Than Housing; Year-End 2024 Tax Tips; Charitable Gifts of Life Insurance; A Critical Combo: Life Insurance with Long-Term Care Benefits; Eight Ideas for Smarter Holiday Shopping; and Playing Fair: New Consumer Protections for Airline Passengers Read More

October 2024

In this issue: Sources of Retirement Income; Vanishing Family Farms; Don’t Have a will?; Medicare Coverage Options; Self-employed Tax-Friendly Retirement Plans; FAFSA for 2025-2026 School Year Read More

September 2024

In this issue: State Income Tax Across the Map; Empty Nesters Own Outsized Share of Big Homes; Do You Have Enough Life Insurance?; Making the Most of Your Credit Card; Can You Put the Brakes on Rising Auto Insurance Premiums?; What’s Your Real Return? Read More

August 2024

In this issue: How the Typical American Family Pays for College; Just Your Average Millionaire; Thinking of Selling Your Home? Don’t Be Surprised by Capital Gains Taxes; Retroactive Social Security Benefits: A Chance to Turn Back Time; and The IRS Wants More Info About Your Gig income Read More

July 2024

In this issue: Bon Voyage!; Watch for These Hazards on the Road to Retirement; Mix It Up: Asset Allocation and Diversification; Insurance Gaps May Pose Risks for High-Net-Worth Households; After the Loss os a Loved One, Watch Out for Scams; Do You Need to Pay Estimated Tax? Read More

June 2024

In this issue: More Women Than Men Earn College Degrees; Financial Regrets; Saving for College: 529 Plan vs. Roth IRA; A Pension Strategy that May Boost Your Income; Can Home Improvements Lower Your Tax Bill? It Depends; Birthday Benefits Quiz Read More

June 9, 2025

As of Market Close on June 6, 2025
Wall Street ended last week on a positive note, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher. The S&P 500 rose to its highest level since February, boosted by guarded optimism around U.S.-China trade talks and a better-than-expected jobs report (see below). However, unemployment claims rose to their highest level in eight months, adding some concerns about the future of the labor sector.  Read More

June 2, 2025

As of Market Close May 30, 2025
Despite a dip at the end of the week, stocks closed last week higher as investors digested renewed trade tensions with China, while inflation showed signs of cooling. Each of the benchmark indexes ended the week higher, riding solid gains in tech shares. All of the market sectors closed the week with gains, with notable advances in information technology, consumer discretionary, real estate, and financials. Long-term bond yields declined. Read More

May 27, 2025

As of Market Close on May 23, 2025
Stocks tumbled last week as traders contemplated the potential impact of new legislation and increased trade tensions following President Trump’s threat of new tariffs against the European Union and Apple. While stocks declined, long-term bond yields rose, with 10-year Treasuries reaching a three-month high of 4.64% last Thursday before settling at 4.51% by the end of the week.  Read More

May 19, 2025

As of Market Close on May 16, 2025
Wall Street enjoyed one of its best weeks in quite some time as stocks moved higher by the close of trading last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes posted solid weekly gains on the heels of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. The 90-day tariff truce helped drive the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year. Most of the market sectors experienced growth, with the exception of health care. Read More

May 12, 2025

As of Market Close on May 9, 2025
Stocks closed mostly lower last week as investors looked ahead to trade negotiations between the United States and China over the weekend. Despite the announcement of a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom, investors remained unsure of the extent of that deal and, more particularly, whether any meaningful progress would be made with China. Read More

May 5, 2025

As of Market Close on May 2, 2025
Wall Street enjoyed another solid week of gains on the heels of some strong corporate earnings data, a better-than-expected jobs report, and more signs that the White House and China may be open to trade talks. By the close of trading last Friday, the Dow had posted 10 straight sessions of gains, while the S&P 500 enjoyed nine consecutive sessions. Investors have seen signs that the economy is resilient in the face of tariffs, despite the fact that the GDP contracted in the first quarter. Read More

April 28, 2025

As of Market Close on April 25, 2025
Wall Street enjoyed a solid week of gains as investors were encouraged by signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here moved higher, driven by gains in AI megacaps and some blue-chip stocks. First-quarter earnings season is in full swing. Of the 180 S&P 500 companies reporting so far, 73% beat expectations. Ten of the 11 market sectors posted weekly advances, with the exception of consumer staple companies, which dipped about 0.73%.  Read More

April 21, 2025

As of Market Close on April 17, 2025
Stocks ended an abbreviated week of trading with mixed results as the U.S. markets closed a day early in observance of Good Friday. Throughout the week, investors weighed trade talks, interest rate uncertainty, and concerns of a global economic retreat. Big tech shares began the week on a positive note as investors hoped a temporary tariff exemption for electronics imports would remain in force. Read More

April 14, 2025

As of Market Close on April 11, 2025
A late-week rally helped push stocks higher to close a turbulent week on a favorable note. Last week began with stocks mixed as investors tried to gauge President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff policy. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped nearly 20 basis points to 4.20% last Monday, rebounding from the previous week’s six-month low. Stocks retreated last Tuesday following the administration’s threat of a 104% tariff on China, effective the following day. Read More

April 7, 2025

As of Market Close on April 4, 2025
Wall Street endured its worst week since the Covid crisis as investors shunned risk in response to inflation and recession fears following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s immediate retaliatory response. Despite a better-than-expected jobs report, comments made last Friday by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who indicated that the economy was in a good place, but the current economic policy raised the risk of higher unemployment and inflation.  Read More

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