July 2024

Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.  Read More


June 2024

Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.  Read More


May 2024

Worries about “stagflation” have recently resurfaced due to slower economic growth, but the data suggests these concerns may be overblown. While inflation remains a challenge, it’s trending downwards, and underlying economic activity appears more robust than headline GDP figures indicate. Read More


April 2024

The recent geopolitical incident between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about a broadening conflict and its impact on global oil prices and the potential economic consequences. Despite current stability in oil prices, as the situation develops, we remain vigilant and ready to adjust our investment strategies as necessary. Read More


March 2024

The global economy is showing signs of improvement, primarily led by the United States. Europe, on the other hand, may be heading toward a recession based on declining GDP estimates. China is taking proactive measures to stimulate its economy and prevent a slowdown. Read More


February 2024

While rate reductions are likely in 2024, the Federal Reserve is pushing back on the market’s expectations for their timing and intensity. Investors originally expected numerous aggressive cuts but are now adapting to the Fed’s more measured outlook. Read More


January 2024

Despite widespread recession fears, the 2023 economy surprised forecasters with positive growth. A resilient job market and strong consumer spending helped the economy defy expectations. Stocks and bonds rebounded in 2023—thanks to a strong economy, the end of Fed rate hikes, and outperformance from Big Tech. Most of the gains occurred in the last two months after the Federal Reserve signaled rate cuts were coming in 2024.  Read More

Archives

  • 2023

    December 2023

    As we approach 2024, the positive alignment of both macrocast™ and microcast™ is significant, indicating improving conditions for risk assets. However, we must acknowledge that although the macrocast™ score is positive, it is still relatively low. While we have not seen a positive score immediately fall back below zero, a market correction could push the score back into negative territory. Read More


    November 2023

    Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest the US central bank may be at the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle that began in early 2022. Still, higher rates and the continuation of Quantitative Tightening reflect the Fed’s commitment to tighter-for- longer monetary policy as they aim to curb inflation without inducing an economic recession.   Read More


    October 2023

    Although the S&P 500 has posted strong year-to-date returns, major asset classes have largely stagnated over the past two years. Since the beginning of 2022, major equity and bond indices have declined between 4% to 20%. However, over the long term, both stocks and bonds have historically exhibited positive real returns, and we expect that will continue to be the case going forward.  Read More


    September 2023

    In August, headline inflation—influenced by rising gas prices—accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year growth, up from 3.2% in the prior month. On the positive side, core inflation continued to slow, dropping to a rate of 4.3% year-over-year. While the trend in core inflation is encouraging, there is still work to be done in achieving the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and another rate hike is still possible before year end.  Read More


    August 2023

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating key trends in the economy and markets. We hope you enjoy these, and we will resume publication of our regular commentary in September.  Read More


    July 2023

    Leading indicators continue to signal potential economic softness on the horizon, while the robustness of coincident indicators paints a picture of a healthy economy. We predict that this divergence will likely sort itself out by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024, resulting either in a downturn or a positive inflection in the business cycle.  Read More


    June 2023

    The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is set to finish the first half of the year with double-digit gains. This is in stark contrast with leading economic indicators, which suggest a recession is still a high probability.  Read More


    May 2023

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate by 0.25% earlier this month, marking what could be the end of this cycle’s rate hikes. Should this prove to be the case, it would be the quickest rate-hike cycle in the past four decades.  Read More


    April 2023

    Major asset classes enjoyed a strong start to the year, a reversal of the way 2022 began. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly positive returns. Bonds also performed well, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index posting its best return since Spring 2020.  Read More


    March 2023

    The banks that have failed over the past week were among the riskiest financial institutions, given their outsized exposure to clientele in the tech industry. Still, the collapse of these banks highlights the consequences of the Fed’s rapid shift in monetary policy. Following a multi-year period of zero interest rate policy, the Fed has increased interest rates at a historic pace bring down inflation. The speed of this tightening and the sharp draining of liquidity creates stress on the financial system.  Read More


    February 2023

    So far, in 2023, the contradicting signals of macrocast™ and microcast™ is the defining market theme—in essence, it is a clash between a recession and a soft landing. A tight labor market and improving market returns are key factors supporting the soft landing narrative, but it’s important to remember that hope for a soft landing always precedes a recession.  Read More


    January 2023

    Markets faced several headwinds in 2022, including high inflation, historic tightening by central banks, and the Ukrainian war. Inflation was a driving factor in the markets throughout the year, with the headline consumer price index reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.  Read More

  • 2022

    December 2022

    Most leading economic indicators are at levels consistent with past recessions, signaling a recession is likely sometime in 2023. In each recession since 1957, S&P 500 earnings have contracted. With analysts projecting mid-single-digit earnings growth next year, we do not believe a recession is adequately “priced in” to stock prices.  Read More


    November 2022

    Last week’s lower than expected inflation data was a welcome change after several months of disappointing figures. Slowing inflation is a significant factor in the Fed’s policy framework, but inflation remains high and there are no signs the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates before next spring. Read More


    October 2022

    Inflation—and the Fed’s fight against it—remains the driving force behind market action. While inflation has likely peaked, the Fed is focused on reducing wage growth to slow inflation further, and history shows higher unemployment may be needed to achieve that goal. Read More


    September 2022

    In recent speeches, members of the Federal Reserve have reiterated that they want to see inflation come down and stay down before they are ready to slow rate hikes. With the latest inflation figures coming in higher than expected, that view is likely to remain in place for at least the next few months.  Read More


    August 2022

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts that illustrate key trends in the economy and markets. The data depicted in these charts is consistent with what we see in macrocast™. Read More


    July 2022

    Most major asset classes saw negative returns in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe were down double digits, and bonds continued their sell off from the first quarter.  Read More


    June 2022

    In a follow-up to our most recent podcast, we highlight every major bear market since the Great Depression. Historically, once a bear market ended, returns over the following 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods were all positive, and often, well above average.  Read More


    May 2022

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by 50 bps (.50%). This was the largest single rate hike since 2000. Looking ahead, they signaled for another 50 bp increase in June and July, and Chairman Powell said further rate hikes, starting in September, would depend on the path of economic growth and inflation.  Read More


    April 2022

    Most asset classes performed poorly in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly negative returns, except for those with significant commodity exposure. In a repeat of the first quarter of 2021, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index suffered another major negative quarter.  Read More


    March 2022

    The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. It was the first of what is expected to be several rate hikes in 2022, as the central bank looks to tamp down inflation while maintaining the strong job market. Chairman Jerome Powell has shifted to a more aggressive tone and is signaling the Fed will no longer wait for inflation to improve on its own.  Read More


    February 2022

    Three issues that have been a hindrance to the market should start improving over the next few months. Inflation concerns, uncertainty about the aggressiveness of Fed tightening, and geopolitical tensions should all be nearing peak levels. Read More


    January 2022

    The market has started the year with a correction, the first since 2020. An increase in volatility was expected coming into the year, given the large gains and lower volatility last year.  When viewed from a historical lens, the recent pullback is unsurprising, but typically, sustained bear market declines are uncommon absent an economic recession. Read More

  • 2021

    December 2021

    Heading into the new year, macrocast™ indicates a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Our current microcast™ signal is suggesting an aggressive allocation. Both models are decisively positive, underpinning a positive market outlook going into 2022. Read More


    October 2021

    Asset class performance diverged a bit in Q3, with few stock indices performing well. US large-cap stocks led the way, while mid- and small-caps posted negative returns. Emerging markets performed poorly, bonds were mostly unchanged, and commodities surged higher. Read More


    September 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs, yet unemployment remains elevated. This conundrum is due to pandemic dislocations and government policy. We believe that these factors have either resolved or will do so in the coming months, leading to continued job growth. Read More


    August 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs. While the labor market continues to recover, it remains below peak employment levels seen in February 2020. There are several reasons for this, but a lack of available jobs is not one of them, with over 10 million openings reported in the latest survey. This bodes well for continued job growth as we move beyond the pandemic and its effects. Read More


    July 2021

    Most asset classes continued to perform well in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe and across market caps again saw positive returns and the majority are up double digits year to date. Bonds also rebounded in Q2. Read More


    June 2021

    Economic growth should remain robust for the rest of 2021, albeit at a slower pace. Constraints in both the housing market and auto industry may negatively impact GDP, but these issues should prove temporary and lead to a rebound in 2022, helping extend the recovery. Read More


    May 2021

    While higher inflation was anticipated, the latest print came in even higher than expected. However, digging deeper into the numbers suggests unique conditions accounted for most of the increase. Read More


    April 2021

    The majority of asset classes performed well in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw positive returns. The notable laggard was bonds. The Barclays Aggregate Bond index suffered its worst quarter since 1981. Read More


    March 2021

    Inflation worries have been in the news lately, with some economists suggesting that the fiscal rescue package, mass vaccinations, and supply constraints will lead to a significant rise in prices. We share the Federal Reserve’s view that any spike in inflation will be temporary. Read More


    February 2021

    The latest economic data continues to exceed expectations. The most recent numbers on auto sales, building permits, and retail sales remain robust as the economic recovery progresses. Read More


    January 2021

    At the end of the first quarter last year, there were bear markets across the globe. By the end of 2020, nearly all equity markets had rebounded, finishing positive on the year. It was a remarkable turnaround, and the S&P 500 saw one of the strongest rallies of all time after the fastest drop in history. Read More

June 2024

In this issue: More Women Than Men Earn College Degrees; Financial Regrets; Saving for College: 529 Plan vs. Roth IRA; A Pension Strategy that May Boost Your Income; Can Home Improvements Lower Your Tax Bill? It Depends; Birthday Benefits Quiz Read More

May 2024

In this issue: Health Insurance Premiums Jumped in 2023; How Would You Pay for Long-Term Care?; Investor, Know Thyself: How Your Biases Can Aggect Investment Decisions; Is Tip Fatigue Wearing Out?; Do You Need to Adjust Your Tax Withholding?; How a Family Limited Partnership Can Power an Estate Plan Read More

April 2024

In this issue: Do You Know If Your Retirement Is At Risk?; When Do People Start Collecting Social Security?; Beware of These Life Insurance Beneficiary Mistakes; Individual Bonds vs. Bond Funds: What’s the Difference?; Housing Market Trends: Are They Helping or Hurting the Economy?; Are You Spending Money to Keep Stuff You Don’t Need? Read More

March 2024

In this issue: Why Do Workers Take Less Paid Time Off Than They Can?; Investors Beware: This Surtax Is Creeping Up On You; Trailblazers: Women Who Made Financial History; Due Date Approaches for 2023 Federal Income Tax Returns; Why Family Businesses Should Have Succession Plans Read More

February 2024

In this issue: Saving Less? You’re Not Alone, Two Ways That Volatile Energy Costs Fuel Inflation, Key Retirement and Tax Numbers for 2024, How Savers and Spenders Can Meet in the Middle, Extreme Weather and Your Home Insurance: HOw to Navigate the Financial Storm, and The Federal Reserve’s Key Meeting Dates in 2024 Read More

January 2024

In this issue: Rising Enrollment in Medicare Advantage Plans, Do You Have These Key Estate Planning Documents?, A New Year, A New Opportunity to Save with a 529 Plan, Can Your Personality Influence Your Portfolio? New Research Points to Yes, Don’t Forget About Credit When Planning for Retirement, and Small Business Could Face Borrowing Challenges Read More

December 2023

In this issue: Decline in Charitable Giving, How Much Income Does Social Security Replace?, Reviewing Your Estate Plan, Understanding Life Insurance, Will You Work Beyond Traditional Retirement Age?, Medical Debt and Your Credit Report, and Get Ready to Visit the Metaverse Read More

November 2023

In this issue: Then and Now; Buybacks and Corporate Taxes; Much Ado About RMDs; Year-End 2023 Tax Tips; Bond Yields Are Up, but What Are the Risks?; Enriching a Teen with a Roth IRA Read More

October 2023

In this issue: Uneven Jobs Recovery; Workers and Retirees Losing Confidence; HDHP/HSA Pairing May Help Control Medical Costs; New Medicare Rules Tackle Prescription Drug Prices; You’ve Received an Inheritance, Now What?; How to Kill Your Zombie Subscriptions Read More

September 2023

In this issue: Employee Access to Roth 401(k) Plans on the Rise; What Real People Think About Artificial Intelligence; Four Key Objectives of a Sound Retirement Plan; New Life for Your Old Insurance Policy; Clean Vehicle Tax Credits: New vs. Qualified Commercial; Time to Bulk Up Your Emergency Fund Read More

August 2023

In this issue: Saving for Retirement Health-Care Costs; Motivation and Money Goals; Put Your Money Where Your Values Are; Coming in 2024: New 529 Plan-to-ROTH IRA Rollover Option; Leave a Lasting Gift with an Ethical Will; On the Move Again: International Travel Tips Read More

July 2023

In this issue: More Americans Embrace the Cashless Economy; Inflation Gauges Don’t Always Paint the Same Picture; Give Your Money a Midyear Checkup; Financing Options to Help You Ride the Mortgage Rate Roller Coaster; Home Energy Tax Credits; Should You Organize Your Business as an LLC? Read More

July 22, 2024

As of Market Close on July 19, 2024
The market saw stocks come in with mixed returns. The Dow and the Russell 2000 advanced, while the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Global Dow lost value. The Dow reached three new records during the week, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posted their worst week since April. AI stocks led a downturn in tech shares as investors moved to small caps. The CrowdStrike outage impacted flights, banks, telecoms, and media companies worldwide. The market sectors ran the gambit of highs and lows, with energy (1.7%), financials (1.3%), and real estate (1.3%) climbing, while information technology (-4.6%) and communication services (-2.8%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 5.0 basis points. Crude oil prices declined on demand worries centered on China. The dollar inched up, while gold prices dipped lower.  Read More

July 15, 2024

As of Market Close on July 12, 2024
Investors were encouraged by the most recent inflation data, raising expectations of an interest rate cut in September. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week in the black, led by the Russell 2000. The small-cap index recorded its best weekly performance since October 2023, while reaching its highest level since January 2022. The expectation of falling interest rates and economic strengthening likely prompted the market shift to more interest-sensitive small- and mid-cap stocks. The Dow rose above 40,000 at one point on Friday, ultimately closing at 40,000. The S&P 500 climbed above 5,600. Crude oil prices slipped lower. While prices at the pump may have risen nationally last week, as of July 1, weekly U.S. average gasoline prices actually declined $0.19 per gallon since the 2024 high on April 22, falling to $3.48/gallon on July 1, $0.05 per gallon less than the price a year ago. Increasing gasoline inventories, relatively weak demand, and oil prices below recent peaks contributed to falling gasoline prices. Read More

July 8, 2024

As of Market Close on July 5, 2024
The stock market fared quite nicely during the Fourth of July week. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reaching record highs a few times during the week. Only the small caps of the Russell 2000 slid lower. The June jobs report (see below) gave investors encouragement that the Fed may be inclined to cut interest rates as early as September. Information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services outperformed among the market sectors, while energy and health care lagged. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 7.0 basis points. Crude oil prices advanced as tensions in the Middle East escalated. Gas prices increased, while some expect prices at the pump to continue to rise.  Read More

July 1, 2024

As of Market Close on June 28, 2024
Stocks closed generally higher for the week, with the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq, and the Global Dow posting gains, while the large caps of the Dow and the S&P 500 declined. Ten-year Treasury yields rose as bond prices fell. Crude oil prices gained about $1.00 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices inched higher. Investors are most likely reassessing their positions following the presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The majority of the market sectors declined last week, with utilities and materials falling the most. Consumer discretionary, communication services, and energy outperformed.

 Read More

June 24, 2024

As of Market Close on June 21, 2024
Wall Street rode a rally in tech and AI stocks for most of last week. The end of the week saw a bit of a downturn, but not enough to keep the benchmark indexes listed here from closing the week higher. The large caps of the Dow led the indexes, followed by the Russell 2000, the Global Dow, and the S&P 500. The Nasdaq inched higher. Despite a dip at the end of the week, crude oil prices posted a second straight weekly gain. Ten-year Treasury yields rose higher after positive economic data prompted the Federal Reserve to refrain from cutting interest rates in the third quarter. The market sectors mostly advanced last week, led by consumer discretionary, financials, and communication services. Utilities declined, while information technology ticked lower.  Read More

June 17, 2024

As of Market Close on June 14, 2024
U.S. stocks outpaced the rest of the world last week as global investors sought relief from the turmoil caused by European elections. Tech stocks carried the market as investors digested a pair of cooling inflation reports. The Nasdaq closed at record highs every day last week, and the S&P 500 also posted a solid gain, while the Russell 2000, the Dow, and the Global Dow all lost ground. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield saw its largest weekly decline of the year. Crude oil prices surged, gold prices rose, and the dollar advanced for the fourth week in a row.   Read More

June 10, 2024

As of Market Close on June 7, 2024
Despite a dip at the end of the week, stocks closed last week generally higher, with the exception of the economically sensitive small caps of the Russell 2000. A robust jobs report at the end of last week may have alleviated concerns about an economic slowdown, but it also strengthened the Fed’s case to refrain from lowering interest rates until inflation recedes. Nevertheless, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded fresh records. Among the market sectors, information technology, health care, communication services, and consumer staples performed well, while utilities, energy, and materials ended the week in the red. With the likelihood of a rate cut diminishing, bond prices fell, driving yields higher. The dollar also benefited from the jobs report, climbing higher against a basket of currencies.  Read More

June 3, 2024

As of Market Close on May 31, 2024
Equities generally closed lower by the end of the week with, the Nasdaq and the Dow falling furthest among the benchmark indexes listed here. The Russell 2000 and the Global Dow were flat. Investors spent the week assessing the first-quarter gross domestic product, jobless claims, and corporate earnings data. Ten-year Treasury yields rose as bond prices dipped, on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a weaker Treasury auction. Crude oil prices dipped and prices at the pump dipped lower. Utilities led the market sectors, with energy and real estate outperforming. Health care, industrials, and information technology closed in the red. Read More

May 27, 2024

As of Market Close on May 24, 2024
Tech shares, particularly AI stocks, helped push the Nasdaq, and to a much lesser extent, the S&P 500 higher last week. The Dow, the Russell 2000, and the Global Dow declined. During a week when volume was relatively light, investors latched onto favorable corporate earnings data from some major tech and AI companies. Among the market sectors, only information technology and communication services closed higher. Real estate and energy fell the furthest. Treasury yields inched higher, while crude oil prices fell 2.74%, yet remain up 9.1% year to date. Gold prices, which had been soaring, had their worst week in a while, although they are up nearly 13.0% from the beginning of the year.  Read More

May 20, 2024

As of Market Close on May17, 2024
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced for the fourth straight week, which is the first time that has happened since February. Not to be outdone, the Dow advanced for a fifth straight week. Much of the week’s focus was on inflation data (see below). Investors will now look to responsive comments from Federal Reserve officials for any potential changes in interest rate expectations. Information technology and real estate led the market sectors, while consumer discretionary and industrials closed in the red. The dollar slipped nearly 0.75% against a basket of currencies. Gold prices advanced over 2.0% for the week and nearly 17.0% for the year. Crude oil prices climbed more than $1.00 per barrel.  Read More

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