January 2025

The U.S. economy led global growth in 2024, fueled by a strong labor market, easing inflation, and resilient consumer finances. These key factors underscore continued growth and support an optimistic economic outlook for the year ahead. Read More


December 2024

Consumer balance sheets remain healthy, with manageable debt levels and ample room for further spending to support economic growth. Coupled with a relatively young economic cycle, this suggests continued room for expansion in 2025. Read More


November 2024

The Fed cut rates again as it seeks to deliver a “soft landing”, balancing inflation and economic growth. Historically, easing monetary policy amid market highs has been a bullish signal, with stocks averaging 15% gains in past instances. Looking ahead, the Fed projects a median Fed funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025, suggesting a gradual pace of rate reductions over the next year. Read More


October 2024

In Q3, most asset classes, including stocks and bonds, saw strong gains, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and diminishing recession risks. Notable trends included a rebound in small-cap stocks, a boost for international markets due to a weaker dollar, and the best quarter for bonds this year. Meanwhile, commodities lagged due to declining oil prices. Read More


September 2024

The Federal Reserve is set to begin a rate cutting cycle on September 18th. An initial 0.25%-0.50% cut is expected, the first of several over the next year as their attention moves from inflation to a slowdown in employment growth.  Read More


August 2024

Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating the important trends in the economy and markets. We will resume publication of our regular commentary in September. Read More


July 2024

Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.  Read More


June 2024

Despite unprecedented global challenges over the past four years, markets have proven resilient, driven largely by US innovation. While ongoing issues like elevated interest rates and uncertainty in monetary policy persist, the market’s ability to reach record highs in the face of recent turmoil suggests it may continue to defy expectations and weather these challenges.  Read More


May 2024

Worries about “stagflation” have recently resurfaced due to slower economic growth, but the data suggests these concerns may be overblown. While inflation remains a challenge, it’s trending downwards, and underlying economic activity appears more robust than headline GDP figures indicate. Read More


April 2024

The recent geopolitical incident between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about a broadening conflict and its impact on global oil prices and the potential economic consequences. Despite current stability in oil prices, as the situation develops, we remain vigilant and ready to adjust our investment strategies as necessary. Read More


March 2024

The global economy is showing signs of improvement, primarily led by the United States. Europe, on the other hand, may be heading toward a recession based on declining GDP estimates. China is taking proactive measures to stimulate its economy and prevent a slowdown. Read More


February 2024

While rate reductions are likely in 2024, the Federal Reserve is pushing back on the market’s expectations for their timing and intensity. Investors originally expected numerous aggressive cuts but are now adapting to the Fed’s more measured outlook. Read More

Archives

  • 2023

    December 2023

    As we approach 2024, the positive alignment of both macrocast™ and microcast™ is significant, indicating improving conditions for risk assets. However, we must acknowledge that although the macrocast™ score is positive, it is still relatively low. While we have not seen a positive score immediately fall back below zero, a market correction could push the score back into negative territory. Read More


    November 2023

    Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest the US central bank may be at the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle that began in early 2022. Still, higher rates and the continuation of Quantitative Tightening reflect the Fed’s commitment to tighter-for- longer monetary policy as they aim to curb inflation without inducing an economic recession.   Read More


    October 2023

    Although the S&P 500 has posted strong year-to-date returns, major asset classes have largely stagnated over the past two years. Since the beginning of 2022, major equity and bond indices have declined between 4% to 20%. However, over the long term, both stocks and bonds have historically exhibited positive real returns, and we expect that will continue to be the case going forward.  Read More


    September 2023

    In August, headline inflation—influenced by rising gas prices—accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year growth, up from 3.2% in the prior month. On the positive side, core inflation continued to slow, dropping to a rate of 4.3% year-over-year. While the trend in core inflation is encouraging, there is still work to be done in achieving the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and another rate hike is still possible before year end.  Read More


    August 2023

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts illustrating key trends in the economy and markets. We hope you enjoy these, and we will resume publication of our regular commentary in September.  Read More


    July 2023

    Leading indicators continue to signal potential economic softness on the horizon, while the robustness of coincident indicators paints a picture of a healthy economy. We predict that this divergence will likely sort itself out by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024, resulting either in a downturn or a positive inflection in the business cycle.  Read More


    June 2023

    The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is set to finish the first half of the year with double-digit gains. This is in stark contrast with leading economic indicators, which suggest a recession is still a high probability.  Read More


    May 2023

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate by 0.25% earlier this month, marking what could be the end of this cycle’s rate hikes. Should this prove to be the case, it would be the quickest rate-hike cycle in the past four decades.  Read More


    April 2023

    Major asset classes enjoyed a strong start to the year, a reversal of the way 2022 began. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly positive returns. Bonds also performed well, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index posting its best return since Spring 2020.  Read More


    March 2023

    The banks that have failed over the past week were among the riskiest financial institutions, given their outsized exposure to clientele in the tech industry. Still, the collapse of these banks highlights the consequences of the Fed’s rapid shift in monetary policy. Following a multi-year period of zero interest rate policy, the Fed has increased interest rates at a historic pace bring down inflation. The speed of this tightening and the sharp draining of liquidity creates stress on the financial system.  Read More


    February 2023

    So far, in 2023, the contradicting signals of macrocast™ and microcast™ is the defining market theme—in essence, it is a clash between a recession and a soft landing. A tight labor market and improving market returns are key factors supporting the soft landing narrative, but it’s important to remember that hope for a soft landing always precedes a recession.  Read More


    January 2023

    Markets faced several headwinds in 2022, including high inflation, historic tightening by central banks, and the Ukrainian war. Inflation was a driving factor in the markets throughout the year, with the headline consumer price index reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.  Read More

  • 2022

    December 2022

    Most leading economic indicators are at levels consistent with past recessions, signaling a recession is likely sometime in 2023. In each recession since 1957, S&P 500 earnings have contracted. With analysts projecting mid-single-digit earnings growth next year, we do not believe a recession is adequately “priced in” to stock prices.  Read More


    November 2022

    Last week’s lower than expected inflation data was a welcome change after several months of disappointing figures. Slowing inflation is a significant factor in the Fed’s policy framework, but inflation remains high and there are no signs the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates before next spring. Read More


    October 2022

    Inflation—and the Fed’s fight against it—remains the driving force behind market action. While inflation has likely peaked, the Fed is focused on reducing wage growth to slow inflation further, and history shows higher unemployment may be needed to achieve that goal. Read More


    September 2022

    In recent speeches, members of the Federal Reserve have reiterated that they want to see inflation come down and stay down before they are ready to slow rate hikes. With the latest inflation figures coming in higher than expected, that view is likely to remain in place for at least the next few months.  Read More


    August 2022

    Every August, we “Chart the Course” by reviewing a series of charts that illustrate key trends in the economy and markets. The data depicted in these charts is consistent with what we see in macrocast™. Read More


    July 2022

    Most major asset classes saw negative returns in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe were down double digits, and bonds continued their sell off from the first quarter.  Read More


    June 2022

    In a follow-up to our most recent podcast, we highlight every major bear market since the Great Depression. Historically, once a bear market ended, returns over the following 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods were all positive, and often, well above average.  Read More


    May 2022

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by 50 bps (.50%). This was the largest single rate hike since 2000. Looking ahead, they signaled for another 50 bp increase in June and July, and Chairman Powell said further rate hikes, starting in September, would depend on the path of economic growth and inflation.  Read More


    April 2022

    Most asset classes performed poorly in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw mostly negative returns, except for those with significant commodity exposure. In a repeat of the first quarter of 2021, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index suffered another major negative quarter.  Read More


    March 2022

    The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. It was the first of what is expected to be several rate hikes in 2022, as the central bank looks to tamp down inflation while maintaining the strong job market. Chairman Jerome Powell has shifted to a more aggressive tone and is signaling the Fed will no longer wait for inflation to improve on its own.  Read More


    February 2022

    Three issues that have been a hindrance to the market should start improving over the next few months. Inflation concerns, uncertainty about the aggressiveness of Fed tightening, and geopolitical tensions should all be nearing peak levels. Read More


    January 2022

    The market has started the year with a correction, the first since 2020. An increase in volatility was expected coming into the year, given the large gains and lower volatility last year.  When viewed from a historical lens, the recent pullback is unsurprising, but typically, sustained bear market declines are uncommon absent an economic recession. Read More

  • 2021

    December 2021

    Heading into the new year, macrocast™ indicates a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Our current microcast™ signal is suggesting an aggressive allocation. Both models are decisively positive, underpinning a positive market outlook going into 2022. Read More


    October 2021

    Asset class performance diverged a bit in Q3, with few stock indices performing well. US large-cap stocks led the way, while mid- and small-caps posted negative returns. Emerging markets performed poorly, bonds were mostly unchanged, and commodities surged higher. Read More


    September 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs, yet unemployment remains elevated. This conundrum is due to pandemic dislocations and government policy. We believe that these factors have either resolved or will do so in the coming months, leading to continued job growth. Read More


    August 2021

    Job openings are at all-time highs. While the labor market continues to recover, it remains below peak employment levels seen in February 2020. There are several reasons for this, but a lack of available jobs is not one of them, with over 10 million openings reported in the latest survey. This bodes well for continued job growth as we move beyond the pandemic and its effects. Read More


    July 2021

    Most asset classes continued to perform well in the second quarter. Equity markets around the globe and across market caps again saw positive returns and the majority are up double digits year to date. Bonds also rebounded in Q2. Read More


    June 2021

    Economic growth should remain robust for the rest of 2021, albeit at a slower pace. Constraints in both the housing market and auto industry may negatively impact GDP, but these issues should prove temporary and lead to a rebound in 2022, helping extend the recovery. Read More


    May 2021

    While higher inflation was anticipated, the latest print came in even higher than expected. However, digging deeper into the numbers suggests unique conditions accounted for most of the increase. Read More


    April 2021

    The majority of asset classes performed well in the first quarter. Equities around the globe and across market caps saw positive returns. The notable laggard was bonds. The Barclays Aggregate Bond index suffered its worst quarter since 1981. Read More


    March 2021

    Inflation worries have been in the news lately, with some economists suggesting that the fiscal rescue package, mass vaccinations, and supply constraints will lead to a significant rise in prices. We share the Federal Reserve’s view that any spike in inflation will be temporary. Read More


    February 2021

    The latest economic data continues to exceed expectations. The most recent numbers on auto sales, building permits, and retail sales remain robust as the economic recovery progresses. Read More


    January 2021

    At the end of the first quarter last year, there were bear markets across the globe. By the end of 2020, nearly all equity markets had rebounded, finishing positive on the year. It was a remarkable turnaround, and the S&P 500 saw one of the strongest rallies of all time after the fastest drop in history. Read More

January 2025

In this issue: Do You Have a New Year’s Resolution?; Social Security COLA Lower for 2025; Three Market-Moving Economic Indicators to Watch; Financial Safety Nets: Exploring Available Sources of Emergency Funds; What’s New for 2025?; and The Four-Day Workweek: Is It Destiny or a Distant Dream? Read More

December 2024

In this issue: Will Holiday Spending Outpace Inflation; Where Americans Are Stashing Their Cash; Would You Be Prepared for an Unplanned Early Retirement?; Home Energy Rebates Could Save You Money; ABLE Turns 10; and Three Ways to Invest in Yourself Read More

November 2024

In this issue: Child Care Costs More Than Housing; Year-End 2024 Tax Tips; Charitable Gifts of Life Insurance; A Critical Combo: Life Insurance with Long-Term Care Benefits; Eight Ideas for Smarter Holiday Shopping; and Playing Fair: New Consumer Protections for Airline Passengers Read More

October 2024

In this issue: Sources of Retirement Income; Vanishing Family Farms; Don’t Have a will?; Medicare Coverage Options; Self-employed Tax-Friendly Retirement Plans; FAFSA for 2025-2026 School Year Read More

September 2024

In this issue: State Income Tax Across the Map; Empty Nesters Own Outsized Share of Big Homes; Do You Have Enough Life Insurance?; Making the Most of Your Credit Card; Can You Put the Brakes on Rising Auto Insurance Premiums?; What’s Your Real Return? Read More

August 2024

In this issue: How the Typical American Family Pays for College; Just Your Average Millionaire; Thinking of Selling Your Home? Don’t Be Surprised by Capital Gains Taxes; Retroactive Social Security Benefits: A Chance to Turn Back Time; and The IRS Wants More Info About Your Gig income Read More

July 2024

In this issue: Bon Voyage!; Watch for These Hazards on the Road to Retirement; Mix It Up: Asset Allocation and Diversification; Insurance Gaps May Pose Risks for High-Net-Worth Households; After the Loss os a Loved One, Watch Out for Scams; Do You Need to Pay Estimated Tax? Read More

June 2024

In this issue: More Women Than Men Earn College Degrees; Financial Regrets; Saving for College: 529 Plan vs. Roth IRA; A Pension Strategy that May Boost Your Income; Can Home Improvements Lower Your Tax Bill? It Depends; Birthday Benefits Quiz Read More

May 2024

In this issue: Health Insurance Premiums Jumped in 2023; How Would You Pay for Long-Term Care?; Investor, Know Thyself: How Your Biases Can Aggect Investment Decisions; Is Tip Fatigue Wearing Out?; Do You Need to Adjust Your Tax Withholding?; How a Family Limited Partnership Can Power an Estate Plan Read More

April 2024

In this issue: Do You Know If Your Retirement Is At Risk?; When Do People Start Collecting Social Security?; Beware of These Life Insurance Beneficiary Mistakes; Individual Bonds vs. Bond Funds: What’s the Difference?; Housing Market Trends: Are They Helping or Hurting the Economy?; Are You Spending Money to Keep Stuff You Don’t Need? Read More

March 2024

In this issue: Why Do Workers Take Less Paid Time Off Than They Can?; Investors Beware: This Surtax Is Creeping Up On You; Trailblazers: Women Who Made Financial History; Due Date Approaches for 2023 Federal Income Tax Returns; Why Family Businesses Should Have Succession Plans Read More

February 2024

In this issue: Saving Less? You’re Not Alone, Two Ways That Volatile Energy Costs Fuel Inflation, Key Retirement and Tax Numbers for 2024, How Savers and Spenders Can Meet in the Middle, Extreme Weather and Your Home Insurance: HOw to Navigate the Financial Storm, and The Federal Reserve’s Key Meeting Dates in 2024 Read More

February 3, 2025

As of Market Close on January 31, 2025
Stocks trended higher for much of last week until Friday, when a Friday slide pulled several of the benchmark indexes listed here lower. Only the Dow and the Global Dow ended the week with gains, while the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 finished in the red. Last Friday, word that the president would enforce tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico cooled investors’ appetite for risk, sending bond yields and the dollar higher. Crude oil prices ended the week on an uptick but not enough to prevent prices from closing last week lower.  Read More

January 27, 2025

As of Market Close on January 24, 2025
Wall Street closed up last week as investors considered the bevy of executive orders issued by President-elect Donald Trump during his first week in office. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week higher, led by the Global Dow and the Dow. Communication services, health care, and industrials outperformed among the market sectors, while energy lagged. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked higher. Crude oil prices dropped nearly 4.5%, the largest weekly decline since November. The dollar index extended its decline to a one-month low. Gold reached its highest level since October.  Read More

January 20, 2024

As of Market Close on January 17, 2024
Stocks closed higher last week, despite a few shaky days. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Russell 2000 and the Dow. Consumer discretionary stocks outperformed along with energy, financials, materials, and industrials. Investor sentiment improved following favorable inflation data and solid earnings from major banks. Crude oil prices increased for the fourth straight week, primarily driven by concerns of new U.S. sanctions against Russian oil producers, which raised worries of tighter global oil supplies. The dollar index declined, snapping a six-week rally. Read More

January 13, 2024

As of Market Close January 10, 2025
Stocks fell sharply last week as favorable economic data furthered sentiment that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for a longer period of time this year. Each of the benchmark indexes lost value with only energy and health care advancing, while the remaining market sectors ended the week in the red. Crude oil prices rose to levels not seen since October as new sanctions against Russia’s oil sector raised concerns of global supply disruptions. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week at their highest levels in 14 months. The dollar index closed at its strongest rate since 2022. Gold prices climbed above $2,700.00 per ounce, extending gains for the fourth straight session. Read More

January 6, 2025

As of Market Close on January 3, 2025
A rise in values last Friday wasn’t enough to prevent stocks from closing generally lower last week. Each of the benchmark indexes declined to start the new year, with the exception of the Russell 2000. Among the market sectors, only energy, utilities, real estate, and health care advanced, while consumer discretionary fell the furthest. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week where they began. Crude oil prices reached a two-month high, driven by cold weather in Europe and the U.S. coupled with growing optimism over increasing Chinese demand. The dollar remained near its highest levels in two years as investors banked on continuing U.S. economic resilience and fewer interest rate cuts. Gold prices rose following a dip in prices the previous week.  Read More

December 30, 2024

As of Market Close on December 27, 2024
Christmas week saw stocks climb higher, despite a tumble last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Scant holiday trading amplified market moves during the week. Information technology led the market sectors, with health care, communication services, utilities, financials, and energy also outperforming. Bond values receded, pushing yields higher. The dollar edged up, while gold prices ticked lower. Crude oil prices gained after falling the previous week.  Read More

December 23, 2024

As of Market Close on December 20, 2024
Despite a late-week rally, stocks tumbled lower last week as Wall Street appears to be limping into the new year. Each of the benchmark indexes lost value, with the Russell 2000 falling nearly 4.5%. For much of the week, investors seemed to move from risk, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve’s revised projection of fewer interest rate reductions in 2025. The decline in equities was broad-based, with each of the market sectors ending the week in the red, with real estate, energy, and materials falling the furthest. Bond yields reached a near seven-month high. Crude oil prices declined on concerns over waning demand. The dollar reached a two-year high earlier in the week, while gold prices ended the week lower.  Read More

December 16, 2024

As of Market Close on December 13, 2024
Stocks pulled back last week as tech shares pared gains from the prior week. The NASDAQ posted a minimal gain, while the S&P 500 retreated from recent record highs. Nine of the 11 market sectors declined last week, with only consumer discretionary and communication services advancing. Investors will be paying close attention to the Federal Open Market Committee, which meets December 17-18, at which time the Committee will have to decide if the recent uptick in price inflation is sufficient to defer another interest rate cut. While the November Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index came in as expected (see below), data from both sources showed inflationary pressures moved further away from the Fed’s 2.0% target. This trend, coupled with a solid labor market, opens the possibility that the Committee may decide to wait until the January 2025 meeting before considering a further interest rate reduction. Nevertheless, the consensus remains that the Fed will reduce the federal funds rate by 25.0 basis points when it meets this week. Crude oil prices rose to their highest levels in three weeks, buoyed by expectations of an increase in demand following China’s economic stimulus and potential supply disruptions resulting from U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia.  Read More

December 9, 2024

As of Market Close on December 6, 2024
A stronger-than-expected jobs report (see below) helped drive stocks mostly higher last week and raise optimism of an interest rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets later in December. Consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology helped drive the market, which was otherwise tempered by downturns in energy, utilities, real estate, and materials. Long-term bond prices were relatively stable, with yields on 10-year Treasuries slipping 2.0 basis points from the prior week’s closing mark. Crude oil prices declined on demand fears despite OPEC+’s decision to extend production cuts until the end of 2026. The dollar inched higher, while gold prices dipped lower.  Read More

December 2, 2024

As of Market Close on November 29, 2024
Thanksgiving week proved to be a positive one for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the Dow and the Russell 2000. Financials, consumer staples, and industrials led the market sectors, with only energy and communication services declining. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell for the second consecutive week. Crude oil prices declined despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar lost about 1.7% for the week, while gold prices declined 2.0%.  Read More

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